November 16th, 2011
|03:34 pm - Death spiral|
I have been saying for the past 18 months that this government's economic policies are going to lead to disaster. The disaster is now closing in on us very fast. This is an unnecessary man-made disaster. Current policies are to blame, and we are in a death spiral right now. It's bloody urgent.
Bank of England slashes UK economic growth forecast: Growth is grinding to a halt and GDP will only rise 1% in 2012, according to the Bank's latest forecast (Guardian 16th November 2011)
Some economists predicted this, and others using different models ridiculed their predictions and said everything would be fine. But it's not about who is right and wrong, it's about which models work and which are rubbish. Some of the economic theory in place right now is rubbish, and we are in big trouble. It's like when the Black Death was coming and some people said 'improve urban hygiene' and others said 'forget hygiene, let's all flagellate'. The flagellation didn't work. It couldn't work.
If you have been listening to us bang on like this for a couple of years now you must consider the possibility that there is something in what we say. Surely by now the evidence is starting to look convincing even to those who were most sceptical.
I bloody hate the right wing Tory and Lib Dem MPs but it is possible that they could stage some kind of coup and save the country, in some awful irony. I strongly urge these people, who I think are culpable and misguided in the extreme, nevertheless to do the right thing. It would be very unfair for them to get the credit, but I am past caring about who gets the credit. This has got to stop. And I guarantee I am not the only person thinking this.
It seems that winning an argument just means that the people who disagreed with you start pretending it was their idea all along. But I don't care about what people say about themselves. We just need a change, and quick.
|Date:||November 16th, 2011 08:50 pm (UTC)|| |
Get out of my brain. I've been saying for a couple of years now (on other subjects than pro-cyclical versus countercyclical economics) that I feel like I'm standing on a street corner shouting "Rats! It's about the rats, and their fleas!" "What's he saying? Something about rats, he's crazy, everyone knows it's the wrath of God. But let's kill the cats and dogs, just to be sure. That's like cleaning out the rats, almost."
Playing chess with death always seems to work in the movies. Worth a try.
Growth is grinding to a halt
Why is this innately bad? I swear not being disingenuously stupid. Genuinely so. :-p
In the long run we do have to swap to a non-growth model, but under controlled conditions. At the moment the economy has to expand, just to stand still. It's like a plane that has to keep at a certain speed or it stalls.
This is why I always say we need to keep capitalism going long enough to build an alternative. There are no governments on Earth that are working to that end though.
Edited at 2011-11-17 07:46 am (UTC)
This is why I always say we need to keep capitalism going long enough to build an alternative.
Question answered, thank you, but dang mister, you're a
better more pragmatic better man than I. :-)
I feel the people who have most interest in keeping it going aren't playing along any more. I was in the Canary Islands a while back and there were these massive empty hotels being built everywhere. It was so obviously unsustainable. Our guide said it was done for money laundering. What a waste.
|Date:||November 17th, 2011 08:32 am (UTC)|| |
It's innately bad under the curent circumstances because in this (relatively) high-inflation, low-growth situation only the rich are getting richer. They are, in effect, sucking up all the growth. Most/many of the rest of us are actively getting poorer.