November 8th, 2009
|11:33 am - Flaying the outfield|
A year or so ago I read Collapse by Jared Diamond. In that book he compares examples of sustainable and unsustainable societies. An example of an unsustainable society is the Viking settlement in Greenland. A key term in that book is 'mining'. He calls it mining if a culture is just stripping out an unreplenished resource. For instance the Vikings stripped the peat from southern Greenland, much faster than it could be replaced (they called it 'flaying the outfield'). Then it was all gone and they died.
The first section of the book is about modern Montana. I found it a bit less interesting than the rest so I skimmed it. However I remember him saying that capitalism has been in Montana much less time (about a quarter of the time) that the Vikings were in Greenland. And we consider Greenland a failed experiment. That comes to mind a lot when we read these National Geographic articles and see the pictures of the prairies being abandoned again.
This is the place where assumptions about the land proved to be wrong. The homesteaders believed rain followed the plough. In the grasslands of western Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, they learned better. And so for almost a century we’ve watched stranded towns and houses fall one by one like autumn leaves in the chill of October.
What is so tragic is that this land only fell to the plough because of the systematic destruction of the existing ecology. Millions of buffalo were left to rot. At the end of Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy, this is the most traumatic page in a book of misery and devastation. The prairie wolves gorge on the corpses and then starve to death. I'm wondering if the world is our outfield, and we are flaying it. Genocide slavery and destruction brought capitalism to the land, and I don't think we can hold onto it.
Though sometimes I think this is just me. I have heard it said 'as people grow old they project their own physical decline onto their culture'. And so I think perhaps it is my own mortality I sense approaching me. In this article George Monbiot says the opposite, that older people such as Clive James reject the truth about climate change, because it reminds them of their own mortality. I feel the opposite.
When charities like 'Save the children' speak out, then I listen.
I'm not sure exactly what qualifies them as experts on scientific truth? That's another worrying element in the debate - the number of people with no specialised knowledge of this field whatsoever (and in many cases no actual knowledge of science at all) who are nonetheless absolutely certain they know where the truth lies. That kind of religious certainty always scares me (and I'd like to emphasise that both sides seem equally guilty in this regard).
I don't qualify them as experts, I qualify them as people with no axe to grind and thus people who will evaluate the data and listen very carefully and if necessary pay qualified people to find out where the truth lies.
If they're going to spend money fighting climate change rather than buying food, then I'm convinced they have done the necessary research to see which will save the lives of more kids.
The anti-nuclear lobby is also a telling one. People who have been fighting nuclear power all their lives are now changing camp. They still dislike nuclear power, but many now accept that the lower CO2 emissions make nuclear better than coal and oil.
I qualify them as people with no axe to grind
I'm not entirely convinced about that.
The anti-nuclear lobby is also a telling one.
I'm very much in favour of nuclear power, but I always was in favour of it. But the fact that a particular group now believes in nuclear power doesn't logically prove that climate change is real. It just proves that the people who believe in climate change believe in it very passionately. But people have often believed passionately in things that turned out to be quite wrong. Many people believed passionately in Marxism. Many people today believe passionately in Scientology, or UFO cults, or creationism.
I have no opinion on climate change myself. I don't have the scientific knowledge to make a scientific judgment. I'm an agnostic. But it's the psychological and political aspects to the debate that interest me. It's the fact that it's become for many people a moral rather than a scientific debate. It seems to me that people choose to believe or not believe based on whether that belief is consistent with their political and moral beliefs.
For myself, it is both scientific and a moral issue.
A quarter of a decade ago, I did a degree in environmental science, back in the days when no one was sure if climate change was happening at all. Back then, we looked at drought issues in one small area of Africa and tried to figure if it was a long term climate shift or just a local variation. We never did reach a firm conclusion as students.
Since then, I've kept loosely in touch with the field and become more and more concerned as I've seen the data slowly come in. Now, we have far more data from Africa and all around the world.
Frankly, what we know now scares the shit out of me. But, I have a dilemma. I also have a partial degree in psychology (more recently with the Open University) - and that scares me even more.
People have a natural tendency to split into groups. You can make the initial split on almost any basis, from eye colour to religion to views on taxation. Thereafter, the groups tend to be self-reinforcing and new issues will tend to be polarised.
You're quite right when you say that many people's climate beliefs are based on their existing political/moral beliefs.
The conundrum is that many people thus judge climate change issues on the basis of what their friends/political party believe. This is a big problem when they don't have the knowledge to evaluate the science themselves. (The science part isn't actually that difficult, if you have science A-levels - but it takes a lot of time to look at the detail and most people don't have that kind of free time.)
Thus, the difficult part is that when a climate scientist (speaking with complete honesty) says "We're screwed if we don't cut CO2 emissions drastically by 2020", people evaluate what s/he is saying in light of their political beliefs and some say "Of course" and some say "Bullshit" and if the scientist shouts louder and says "Look, guys, 250,000 kids will die next year because of climate change!" then (because we're very British and hate fanatics of any kind), we shut him out and go away to tackle a problem that is on a scale we can deal with.
I think it may be psychologists that will save the planet.
(BTW, why would you see Save the Children and Oxfam as an axe to grind on the climate front?)
Thus, the difficult part is that when a climate scientist (speaking with complete honesty)
The problem I have here is that if you're a climate scientist you may well have based your entire professional career on a belief in climate change. If you were to cease believing, you would be faced with the prospect of having to accept that your whole professional career had been wasted, and you'd also be faced with having to look for a new job. If climate change isn't true, then we really don't need so many professional climatologists.
why would you see Save the Children and Oxfam as an axe to grind on the climate front?
I would have imagined that they probably subscribe to particular political beliefs. I don't know anything about them, so maybe I'm wrong, maybe they're all enthusiastic Tories!
I'm not a professional climatologist. I make no portion of my income from climate science.
I have no professional career in this area to lose.
I merely have the education and interest to learn what is happening.
What I have to lose is a habitable world for my grandchildren.
|Date:||November 17th, 2009 01:39 am (UTC)|| |
I'm sure we're all keen to have a habitable world, but there are many problems that need to be dealt with. We can't afford to throw away zillions of dollars on climate change unless we're sure it really is caused by human agency rather than just being a normal temporary fluctuation. That money could solve other more pressing problems. We can't afford to act on emotions, to go on an OMG We're All Doomed panic. If we did that every time the environmentalists came up with a scare campaign we'd never get around to tackling any other problems. It concerns me that the Left has become so obsessed with climate change that other priorities are being ignored. It also concerns me that the whole Green thing has become a big money-spinner, a huge marketing exercise. So I remain deeply sceptical!
We can't afford to throw away zillions of dollars on climate change unless we're sure it really is caused by human agency rather than just being a normal temporary fluctuation
We ARE sure. Temporary fluctuations are caused by things like sunspot cycles, wobbles in the Earth's rotation and fluctuations in the jet stream. Each of those has been factored in (it always amazes me that people can believe that anyone who knows anything about climate science would forget them). What is left after all that is accounted for is a large ongoing increase in temperature, which correlates closely to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. This isn't surprising as CO2 in the atmosphere was already known to trap heat.
IF you want one with really easy science, look up ocean acidification - as far as I'm aware, even the climate change deniers don't argue with that one. CO2 dissolves in water to make carbonic acid. Carbonic acid is damaging to reefs (which dissolve easily) and marine life. The oceans are getting more acidic - not at a level that will hurt you if you go swimming, but at a level that will threaten world fish stocks.
You keep saying we shouldn't act on emotions, but you're totally unwilling to go and check the data for yourself. Surely, you're acting on emotion yourself?
I think what's puzzling me most is what you think my motive is.
I'm someone who has done the science (starting back when climate change was not established as a fact, so I've seen the gradual development and the slow accumulation of facts.) (and it's interesting to realise just how much of the data comes from archaeology, historians, marine scientists, Arctic explorers, oceanographers, astronomers, and other specialities, not just physicists, biologists and chemists)
I don't make money in any way from talking about climate change - when I graduated, I went to work in telecomms and then became a housewife when the kids came along, doing an occasional bit of editing and math tuition along the way.
I'm pretty much in the centre politically (I've never voted Labour).
If all people talking about climate change are doing it because they're strong left-wing or making money out of it, then, falling into neither camp, what is my motive for lying to you?
As I've studied environmental science, I clearly can't be backing the climate change lobby because I'm just going along with the herd - therefore, I must have a motive for lying to you.
watervole said: People who have been fighting nuclear power all their lives are now changing camp. They still dislike nuclear power, but many now accept that the lower CO2 emissions make nuclear better than coal and oil.
I think they're making a BIG mistake--if you put people who oughtn't to be allowed to manage a whelkstall in charge of something that, by poor management or intent, easily turns into an atomic bomb, then I don't want to be around when Wackiness Ensues.