There's a lot of ground between 'completely justified' and 'all made up out of nothing' and my guess is that we will end up somewhere between these extremes, which is disappointing in itself. At best I think we may end up judging it a real and credible investigation, of a genuine plot, which was perhaps triggered a bit early.
On the other hand, if the whole 'plot' proves to be a complete load of baloney, as some are arguing, then I think the bolt is shot. The establishment may not realise yet how much credibility and good will it will have lost, but it would be a watershed. The cynicism which greets the next 'foiled plot' would be significantly greater than ever before.
Because I think the implications are so serious, I am hanging back on coming down on one side or another.
Have other people who like me picked 'I believe' in the poll last week, changed their views?
ETA andrewducker has pulled together some evidence items here (in support of the 'it was fake' stance)