Labour were punished for the war, but managed to keep control of the Government. The Lib Dems have benefitted from this transitory circumstance. What happens next is crucial, and luck has a lot to do with it. It is quite likely that in the next five years there will be some international tragedy - an epidemic, a global slump, a war that isn't well contained within borders - and how it effects this country will determine the future credibility of Labour. At least we will not sink this year into retrenchment.
My other comment is that some people are poison. I've only met two or three truly poisonous people in my life, and all you can do with them is avoid them. They poison everything they touch. I think George Bush is just that kind of poison, and he has poisoned Blair - a man who could have continued as our leader - so that he now must go. I think that he made up his mind last night.