June 11th, 2004

breaking bad

Bleary eyed after the night before

So, a disasterous election result for Labour. My feeling is that this is the result of two factors: the Iraq protest vote, and the natural tidal change slipping back from its high point. At the general election the former factor will (I think) have largely eroded, but the second factor will still be in effect. My guess therefore is that Labour will scrape through at the next general election, but will suffer heavy losses, and may well redefine itself, and limp perhaps to defeat in the election after that. Because politics is cyclic. Although I support the left I know they can't be in power for ever.

However, I don't think any of us know what is going to happen in the USA, and that will have a huge effect on the political environment in which the rest of us operate. If the constituion is suspended, and/or the electoral process subverted in a big way, comparable to when Rome ceased to be a Republic, then who knows the knock-on effects for the rest of the world. At present I would say that is no more than possible.